ATB Entrepreneur Center

Understanding variable costs and how to manage them during inflationary times

Written by ATB Entrepreneur & Small Business | Jan 29, 2025 12:06:21 AM

Managing costs effectively is key to running a successful small business. While fixed costs like rent and insurance remain constant, variable costs—expenses that change with production or sales—fluctuate with business activity. Understanding and managing these costs can significantly impact your bottom line, particularly during uncertain economic times influenced by inflation or supply chain disruptions.

What are variable costs?

Variable costs are expenses directly related to business activity. When sales or production increase, these costs rise; when sales decline, they fall. Their flexibility distinguishes them from fixed costs, which remain stable regardless of business performance.

Examples of variable costs:

  • Raw materials, ingredients and supplies
  • Direct labour (e.g., wages paid per unit produced)
  • Packaging and shipping costs
  • Utilities (e.g., energy for production)
  • Sales commissions

For small businesses, variable costs often appear on financial statements as the Cost of Goods Sold (COGS), which is the direct expense related to delivering products or services.

Variable costs vs. fixed costs vs. semi-variable costs

Fixed costs are expenses that remain constant regardless of production, such as rent, administrative salaries, or loan payments.

Variable costs are expenses that rise or fall in direct proportion to business activity, such as raw materials or delivery fees.

Semi-variable costs include both fixed and variable components, such as electricity fees with a base charge plus usage costs.

Example: A small restaurant pays monthly rent (fixed cost), purchases ingredients to create inventory that fluctuates based on sales (variable cost) and pays a part-time employee a base wage plus overtime during busy seasons (semi-variable cost).

How variable costs impact cash flow

Variable costs adjust in real-time with sales and production, providing flexibility during slow periods but adding pressure when business picks up. Rising input costs from inflation—like raw materials or transportation—further complicate cash flow management. Without careful monitoring, businesses risk shrinking profit margins and cash shortages.

Inflation complicates variable costs

A recent survey of Canadian accountants revealed that 54% of accountants view inflation as the most significant financial threat to small businesses. Interestingly, the survey also found that, of the mistakes small business owners make, the second biggest is ‘not paying enough attention to cash flow.’ 

Inflation increases input costs, such as raw materials, transportation, and energy. For instance, the price of flour for a bakery or lumber for a carpenter can rise unexpectedly, impacting cash flow.

Strategies to manage variable costs

Regular assessment

  • Track COGS weekly or monthly to identify trends and anomalies.
  • Calculate variable costs as a percentage of sales to spot inefficiencies.

 Supply chain optimization

  • Build strong supplier relationships and negotiate better terms, such as volume discounts or fixed pricing contracts.
  • Consider local suppliers to reduce transportation costs.

Improve inventory management

  • Avoid over-purchasing, which leads to waste, and under-purchasing, which disrupts operations.
  • Use inventory systems to optimize stock based on sales forecasts.

 Operational efficiency

  • Invest in technology and automation to reduce labour and utility costs.
  • Train staff to minimize errors and waste.
  • Regularly review processes for improvement opportunities.

 Adjust Pricing Strategies

  • Evaluate pricing structures when costs rise significantly to maintain margins.
  • Communicate cost-related price adjustments transparently to customers.

To maintain resiliency, monitor your cash flow weekly, plan for seasonal fluctuations, and build cash reserves to absorb unexpected cost spikes.

Adaptive budgeting

Adaptive budgeting creates a financial plan that flexes with your business needs rather than remaining static. Monitor for changes—like rising costs or shifting sales patterns—and adjust accordingly.

Example: A restaurant owner noticed food costs rising. Instead of accepting lower profits, they:

  • Reviewed menu pricing
  • Negotiated better deals with suppliers
  • Adjusted portion sizes while keeping value for customers
  • Created new dishes with higher profit margins

By setting clear financial triggers—such as 25% profit drops or costs rising above a set percentage—you can respond quickly and avoid bigger problems. 

Learn more about financial forecasting.

The bottom line

Managing variable costs is essential for small businesses to protect cash flow and profit margins, especially during economic uncertainty. As a business owner, you can remain resilient and competitive by tracking costs, negotiating better terms, and improving operational efficiency. Taking proactive steps to control costs today ensures you’ll build the resiliency required for long-term success.